$10 NL full ring: April 17/18

by PokerAnon ~ April 18th, 2015. Filed under: Poker Analysis.

Got to keep up with the analysis.

Two short sessions over two days.

Here I flat AQs against what I suspect may be a decent player. 3 betting is definitely an option, but AQs plays decently as well, I think. I’m ahead of his range, but he’ll have position so by calling preflop I’m looking at keeping the pot controlled/small.

On the flop with top pair I check / call. Danger of the flush killing my action or him hitting, but, meh. I donk turn because I don’t want him checking behind. I bet small, hoping to get a call from a weaker Q or maybe a middle pair that wants to see what I have. Same with the river; betting larger is less likely to get a call, I think.

Next hand I 3 B KK because I’m in the blinds. Raiser folds, player that I have marked as a fish calls. Dryish flop, but he’s a fish. Turn I bet tiny because we’re pot committed and we still have the river to go.

Next hand a player with decent stats gets aggressive. I’d been playing LAGgy because the table is short, but was still surprised given his stats that he 5 bet-shoves.

Later he did a similar thing with TT and ran up against another AA.

Next, a coinflip; QQ in the blind versus an EP raise. No comment; regular play from both players.

Next, a bad player with some poor aggression; min-raises my flop bet, then almost pots the turn. To speak his language, I min-check raise him, leaving him less than a dollar. When the river card showed, I knew it was a bad card.

Next, an undersized 3 bet from an undersized stack in the blind, so I shove and another coin flip.

Last large-pot hand.

On the turn he makes raises. He’s 27/13 but only over 15 hands, so not an idiot, but that’s about all I know. 79 has a straight but I have the flush draw plus two overcards. Against most tens, say KT/QT, anything that doesn’t have an Ace or Jack (which would kill one of my outs) I’m still a pretty decent dog with only one card to come.

But since I opened from early position, plus I bet the flop and turn, JJ/QQ/KK/AA are not out of my range. If I’m him and I have any kind of ten, I have to fold here if I were him.

In his position, I can only figure he’s floating the dry board, or maybe has 99/77/55 or something and would be as happy not to see the river anyway. But unless he’s intentionally floating me with air, I don’t like the turn raise, especially if he has a bluff catcher like a ten or middle pair.

A lot of luck in some of these hands from the last day; winning both coin flips, flopping top pair against JJ, getting action from 88 with AA. Plus hands that didn’t make the pot-size cutoff for analysis: flopping a set of 5s three way though unfortunately the raiser folded the turn, after timing down, turning a flush but not getting a call on the river. But getting a bad player to call my squeeze with KK, then getting to call flop with nothing and calling off his stack when he turns a pair with a ten always helps the win ratio.


So, after four sessions:

  • 1,324 hands
  • VPIP – 19.6
  • PFR – 13.3
  • 3Bet – 2.75
  • Steal – 46.5
  • Button Steal – 60.9 (not bad; I’ve been trying to bring this down a bit)
  • 39.64 bb/100
  • bb/100 – 39.64
  • Net – + $52.48

I have no delusions that 39 bb/100 is sustainable, even with some of the bad play that I’ve seen. Still, it’s always nice to be winning.



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